Apologies to my team; if we had lynched ThatLaggyPerson Day 3 we would have won (assuming I could convince the others that I was the remaining townie and not asa). Statistically speaking, going into night phase 1:3:6 instead of 0:4:6 gives town better odds of winning, and I wanted to keep Light as far away from a majority as possible (they had FOUR players on their team (at least it seemed that way to us) and had shown that they had an anonymous daykill, I didn't want to take any chances. And I wasn't 100% sure that I could convince Blaze or Boozer that I was town). But it turns out that Light's optimal play was to lynch Light. And the fact that I said this sentence means that this was a very, very strange game. Sensor confirming who all the townies were to the mafia worked against town at this point.
Moral of the story: friends don't let friends put Sensors in their Mafia games.
OK, I'll try and explain as best as I can why I'm the remaining townie (will contrast to asa where applicable as it seems that he's my main competitor)
1. I've been staunchly against the idea of four-man mafia teams the entire game. I explained why on Day 1 - there's ZERO precedence of a game this size having anywhere near that amount of anti-town players and the Expected Win Rate of town in 4:4:8 is negligible. How does this contrast to asa, who also seemed to strongly believe against 4:4:8 early in the game? The answer lies in our actions early in the current phase. I was SO SURE that 4:4:8 wasn't going to happen that I attacked Boozer as soon as the day phase started because I was confident that he was lying about his sensor results. I only changed from this as soon as Maribro flipped and confirmed Boozer as correct. Contrast this to asa, who despite being so adamant against 4:4:8 earlier in the game, was suddenly very open to it on Page 34 - instead of his first instinct being that Boozer was lying, his first instinct was to believe Boozer and push lynches onto Maribro and Laggy (yeah the two mafiosi not on his team, cool). He KNEW that Boozer wasn't lying and forgot to keep his act up.
2. Dark faction's actions. Divided into two parts. Go read through the end of Day 2 again. Aerodrome's fakeclaim at the end of Day 2 makes no sense unless he was 100% sure that asa was mafia. Why would you fakeclaim a role when you were under zero pressure yourself unless you were certain that the opposing player was mafia?
Second part is Maribro. I'm not sure how much credence using a mafioso's words as evidence gives to my case but here's my thoughts: Maribro was daykilled by Light faction as soon as he started hinting that he was cop. Maribro was hinting strongly that I was town. Light knew that he was telling the truth and daykilled him ASAP to prevent him from talking further. I can't imagine Maribro being so staunch that I was town if I was actually Light mafia. What would a Dark mafioso gain from staunchly defending a Light mafioso? If he was a regular cop, he'd have run into the risk of me being investigation-immune. But since, before he was daykilled, he could not openly state what he knew... I think he might have been a flavour cop or such. And flavour cop's can't really return false results like this.
If I was Light mafia why would I daykill a player that was defending me as town?
3. I wrote a big-ass wall on the bottom of Page 16 about a theory that a lot of mafiosi would've been on the Day 1 wagon. Why would I write this if I was mafia and it implicated me and every single one of my teammates? I know that I might have a bit of a reputation for killing my teammates after Ultimate Mafia, but I don't think that I would have written this theory if ALL of my teammates were on the wagon AND I KNEW FOR SURE that there was a second killing faction AND the Town Doctor was dead, that would've been a whack-ass bus.
4. My actions so far today. I think that I've generally been the most pro-town... at least after Maribro was killed. JonCheee posted once and then dipped from the thread and asa's been subtly trying to direct town in the direction most favourable for him (killing Laggy and Maribro). No idea where Windkeeper is. I've generally been taking actions, such as trying to get Laggy to talk, that would be detrimental to Light faction. I think it's safe to interpret it that way? Getting Laggy to talk ties into Point 2 btw I wanna know what Dark knew about asa and what Maribro's role was.
5. JonCheee and Windkeeper0's interactions with asa. Do these seem natural to you guys in hindsight? Both Jon and Winekeeper were pretty quick to be satisfied with asa's responses to Bijou's questioning. Windkeeper0's OBSESSION with JEANS on Day 1 (which I brought up on Day 1 and 2) makes more sense if we think that asa and Windkeeper0 were mafia together, with Windkeeper grouping up with asa to try and get a vocal anti-asa player out of the game.
6. Bijou thought that I was town and asa was mafia, and we all like Bijou, right?
I'm not sure if it's proof but I did try to drop a couple of crumbs earlier in the game to reference if it came to a situation like this.
dean said: I've been holding my tongue for a bit and watching over things because I think JEANS should respond to those posts before I change subjects so it would be cool if he did that a bit faster.
Check the language in this post (Page 6). Does it seem natural? I went out of my way to make sure to say that I was going to watch over things.
dean said: As for why I, specifically, didn't die? I wish I knew. Mafia might be wary of other roles that dissuade them from making obvious kills, like Watchers.
This one is on Page 19. I made sure to specifically mention Watchers as the example of role here.
Couldn't really crumb about the Bijou results because I didn't see anything useful. Nobody visiting asa was strange and part of the reason why I drew suspicion to him early this day phase... BUT I can't really use this as proof because if I was mafia I would've known that Boozer's Sensor results were correct and that I would have needed to distance myself from the rest of the potential Lights I guess...
So there you have it. I'm not sure if this is much to help convince you that I'm Watcher or even if it is that I'm Spirit Watcher (since we can see that Ghost was Watcher as well).
Lachlan, Al. At this stage which of JonCheee, asa, Windkeeper0 and I are you leaning on being town?
I'm very worried about being stuck in a Lylo situation with Blaze (who seems confident that I'm mafia) so I'm thinking I might have to try hard in this day phase to convince the confirmed townies that I'm town.
Laggy, my dude. This is your time in the spotlight!
You can make an impact on this game!
Do you want to help people like me, who have always been nice to you? Or do you want to help smelly mafia like Windkeeper0 who's happily Day 1 lynched you multiple times with zero regrets?
I'm not sure how worthwhile it is to state my opinion because I know that I'm one of the players in the hotseat so you'd be keeping a critical eye over anything that I say.
BUT: LtLongshot, Blaze, Lachlan, Boozer and Ben Gold('s replacement), if you're happy to lynch Laggy today then I'll join in. In the end I'm going to need to convince you at some stage that I'm the remaining townie anyway so doesn't matter if we do it now or later.
But I think it might be worth asking Laggy about any information he might have about the set-up. Laggy, can you confirm if you could only kill on Night 2 or not? Anything else about your night powers? I'm aware that he could try to sabotage us so we'll need to take what he says with a grain of salt but from my perspective he should hate Light mafia more than he hates town (they killed two of his teammates, after all!) ACTUALLY
If Boozer survives the night he might be able to give us another round of Sensor results so I guess it might be best to split up the Laggy voters and non-voters to give us the most information.
I don't remember the maths for if we should lynch a Light or Dark mafia in this situation (I calculated some Expected Win Percentage when I was at work to show that 4:4:8 was statistically heavily biased against town (which seems to be useless now since it seems that's what we have LOL)), so wait until I'm back at work? (Tuesday)
If we're lynching from the Light mafia pile I heavily recommend asa though: Dark mafia were EXTREMELY confident that he was mafia (Aero's gambit doesn't make sense if they weren't, and + what Maribro said today) It doesn't make sense that he's alive today if he's town (I can't imagine mafia risking not shooting him overnight to avoid proccing his vengeful effect) I'm happy with a mass reveal.
Blaze, let's think that Boozer thought that there were three mafiosi on each team (because he said that's what he thought).
If he was telling the truth, he knew that three of these six players were mafia: asa, Aerodrome, Windkeeper0, JonCheee, dean, Extra. Even guessing blindly that's 50%.
He also knew that two of these seven players were not on the wagon: Bijou, Blaze, BattleDolphin, Maribro, ThatLaggyPerson, LtLongshot. That's 33%.
So if he was taking a stab in the dark, why would you go for the 33% instead of the 50%? On Day 2 he made zero actions that were consistent with the knowledge that he supposedly knew.
Boozer said: Just lynch asa ez
50/50 if hes mafia or not !!
If he knew this then wtf were his actions all throughout the day about?
Look at how happy Aero was to throw about "I believe Boozer" and "I think Boozer is town" about through the bottom of Page 25 / top of Page 26. This post in particular stands out:
Aerodrome said: Ah, BD I think Dean just wants to make Boozer look stupid. He's succeeded btw. But I still think Boozer is town.
I feel like I made some reasonable points but he just discredits my argument without addressing it and tries to establish in our minds again that Boozer is town.
Boozer was also happy to throw shade at people that voted for Aerodrome.
Boozer said: Quite a few potential light mafias switching to aero vote :thinking:
Even though it was basically the same group of players on the asa bandwagon as the Aerodrome wagon? Anyway judging by his D1 sensor data there shouldn't have been any distinction between Aerodrome and asa so not sure why he'd defend Aerodrome and not asa.
Why didn't asa die last night? If he's telling the truth about his elite status then I'm very surprised that a mafia team would risk shooting anyone else.
Aero's gambit on asa doesn't really make sense unless Dark faction was extremely confident that asa was mafia. I'm thinking that it might be possible that Ghost tracked asa Day 1 and saw him visit Ghost? (I'm not sure if results from an investigative mafioso are relayed to the rest of a team if they die that night), or if Dark had another investigative role.