So I counted all the posts that each person made. (I didn't count the twilight posts)
So the OR is depending on if you count multi-posts or not as individual posts.
Player Post Tally: LachlanF - 3 or 5 Posts (dead day 1) Glace - 7 Posts (dead night 1) MrL - 7 Posts (dead day 2) cAKe - 10 Posts (lived) Exist - 13 Posts (lived) Jeans - 11 or 12 (dead day 4) Atyeo - 15 Posts (dead day 3) [had like 5 super long ass posts though] Aero - 16 Posts (dead night 2) BD - 17 or 19 Posts (dead night 3) Rhyno - 48 or 52 (lived)
GG Atyeo, you are a super scary player. Even scarier than Ghost (who I lost to by the way). It's a bit unfortunate how the game went, I literally left the tab open on my computer and checked multiple times a day waiting for people to post. Which is why I posted so much.
Frankly I sign up to the game to play and chat, but this game didn't really go that way. I don't know if it was because of the time of the game or not, but yeah.
Also Atyeo please never make me do a 3.5k word reply ever again, it might have been the worst experience ever haha.
Wait a minute BD, you're a god, I didn't even see that in my write-up and I literally went through point for point.
Also you definitely did the right thing by not protecting me night 1 since I would have been too obvious as well. (shown since I'm still alive) But unfortunately the one you protected was mafia. :(
Also with the Mafia kills being as smart as they were I wouldn't say you sucked at doctor, it's literally a 1/10 chance to get a good protect but if mafia kill unrelated people then its almost 0/10.
So before the other 2 town members decide to vote I'd like to take it upon myself to at least defend myself once again.
At the moment I've taken it upon myself to provide definitive evidence that Atyeo is at the very least one of the mafia members. (Jeans looks likely too since he jumped in for his defense). The real reason I claimed first is because I literally waited 2 days for everyone to post. Everyone except Jeans had posted by this point and I already had myself under pressure from Atyeo making a bunch of claims about me. So since I felt enough was already discussed today and that I am the real detective I decided to share my findings with town.
Like for example, what makes you think so confidently that Jeans is the real detective? Simply because he doesn't have you on his mafia list? Well since you are still alive and I'm still alive, one of us should be mafia in this instance.
And since we both agree that the doctor is likely to protect me you would have been the perfect night lynch, Aero had been constantly agreeing with me days prior, so as mafia there is absolutely no reason to choose him over you, except for if I actually wasn't mafia and that the mafia had no other choice but to take the safe lynch.
Personally I'm not sure why BD sided with me so quickly, it may be because first information is good information. However it clearly defines 2 potential groups of mafia to town and then they need to make an informed decision on evidence given. (Don't get me wrong I'm glad that I'm not alone for once in this type of defense, but yeah it definitely shows more options for town to lynch and needing to make a decision).
So I said that cAKE's play if he was mafia was brilliant (since he would have done it on purpose at this point), I think you keep going back and twisting my words. Since I highly doubt cAKE is even mafia at all at this point then the play was just a simple slip up and shows that he wasn't invested into the game at the time of posting.
As someone who has seen cAKE play quite regularly and play with him a few times, its pretty clear to see this is a common occurrence of mistake for cAKE and similar things have happened in the past, so to finally do this on purpose in the reverse end if he were mafia would be something amazing, tbh.
In general for mafia play, killing Aero would not be as good as killing Atyeo, why is that? Simply Aero plays anti-town for the fun of it, so getting to lynch him on later days is much simpler then trying to get someone like Atyeo lynched I'm not saying Aero's a bad player or anything (he's really smart about his decisions) but the only reason Atyeo should ever be lynched is if a detective finds something in him usually. So yes the Atyeo should die at night argument should hold water and if you don't think so you are highly underselling yourself.
Narrowing power roles and such to the more active players in the voting process is a highly likely scenario that occurs in every game. The vanilla game I created with Dean had all the power roles being incredibly involved with the game and the others just going MIA and not doing a whole lot. So yes it was a guess, but it's an educated guess and show's promise since me and Jeans are clearly a detective and mafia member.
So as far as I'm concerned, if the top players aren't my friends, I need to know. It's pretty likely that one of the top players should be mafia in the late game, so knowing early on is pretty important. Also in day 1, I don't think there was a single person who was more worthy of an investigation as Aero since we literally ran out of time and had to mercy lynch for the sake of town and at this point he was the only one showing suss behavior.
The main reason I defended you Atyeo because at the time I thought you could potentially be town, you were doing your typical analysis stuff, but at the same time I felt as if you weren't giving much basis and were kind of splashing about. (This was even said in Jeans analysis as not being meaningful observation). Made me suspect you more and more, however we had bigger and better things to discuss at the time, since BD and MrL had some falling out, making me believe one if not both were mafia at the time to avoid suspicion between one another. After MrL turned up town and even as a firefighter I had to think about it a bit more, the decision between investigating Atyeo or BD was hard, but I preferred to have a look into the more experienced player since BD was already a likely lynch target for today when night began.
Being on the fence about Aero is a clear example of the result that turned back when I investigated him. Like he could be mafia godfather and then I'd just look silly if he died and turned up mafia. However since the likelihood of that actually occurring was still quite low I didn't bother to press any information out of him further on since I felt like he was on my side.
I would never call my search of Atyeo a waste, with the mafia godfather in play every investigation was more of a hope than anything. With Atyeo still alive into this day I probably could have assumed he was mafia without even investigating him, but since I did take the risk and opportunity to investigate him I can now be sure of my argument instead (I really hate confrontation so making arguments like this when I can't be sure who is mafia or not is actually incredibly hard).
So the right time to role reveal is never straight away. You win these games by generating meaningful discussions and such. So letting everyone (except Jeans since he took so long to reply) post before I made a claim was the right thing to do and could have potentially let me weed out any other mafia members in the mean time. Specifically since I know that they are mafia godfather at this point and my power is a lot harder to use. Also even more specifically since I was under the pressure and as you said, needed a strong defense, you didn't even really let me wait to let Jeans talk. I'd rather not give an opportunity to an inactive player at the time to lynch an innocent town member such as myself.
So with the voting to get people to talk thing. It's something I noticed in my prior games, but if you ask people things they generally don't speak up unless there is some form of pressure on them. You stated many times that people seem to just avoid the question and carry on about something else to avoid the conversation. So as such I do put a vote on someone to make them speak, putting a vote on cAKE provided very much as a good result because he was able to confirm to me that he was town at this point with his "bad defense".
The convenient excuse you talk about really doesn't mean anything as well, like as town it's in the best interest for us to lynch people otherwise we are really just giving mafia a free kill every night without a chance of hitting scum during the day. That said, day 2 who would you have lynched? It was out of cAKE and MrL. cAKE of which at least was able to provide a defense of himself even though you said it was bad, at least he tried MrL simply didn't even try and promised a big write-up twice and didn't deliver.
Based on my vague post that I initially made it seems to have worked. It drew you out saying that this is just a dumb guess, but in reality it really wasn't. The only guess here was if one of BD or Jeans was actually mafia as well, not revealing straight away actually gave me more strength in this type of defense I'm doing right now since I have at least something to refer back to unlike Jeans.
Once again, through my experience people with roles are indeed MORE invested in the game, they have something to discuss and do and feel like they are able to make bigger plays. While it may not have 100% certainty there is definitely a correlation and if you disagree with that you're just being silly.
Jeans typically target hunts when he plays, makes a mistake and gets lynched from my experience as him as a player, why suddenly change this now? It's almost as if someone was telling him what to do. Other than his big write-up which you pretty much completely disagreed with, and the counter claim as detective he hasn't done a whole lot unless needed. Hell he even came down and hammered MrL since you guys already knew he was town and could blame it on me for being the first person to vote for him in the process. Hammering is usually bad, but in a case of this game where we don't play until the last day for some reason it has been overlooked.
As such I think my actions are pretty clear. You do things to get people to talk, in this case that gives me information of who I want to investigate. Day 1: I pressured Aero, he ignored me and didn't provide and basis whatsoever so I felt the need that I had to investigate him. Day 2: Nothing really happened, I tried getting people to talk and that really only worked for cAKE after Christmas happened and I believed his defense, so I then went to the most next suss person which was MrL at the time, he dies Atyeo is still alive, I'm not left with much choice of who to investigate at this point. (It was between him and BD, but as I said earlier BD was a more likely lynch target day 3 if no information was found, which Exist agreed with).
Was cAKES defense really a dud defense?
It got Aero, BD and I to believe him at the time, so it must have at least been a decent defense. MrL's input was limited to:
MrL said: Lynch cake so you’ll be suss of me and then I activate my trap card and you then vote for BD the real mafia by default 😇
which even insinuates he also thought that cAKE wasn't mafia. He also made hints to a role, I would have liked to know what it was before lynching him, but he never typed for the next 2 days and left town with no choice really. Also even Exist thought cAKE was town but also a detriment if he was going to make those types of plays. Legitimately it was just Atyeo and Jeans who was trying to pin him as mafia.
Your answer on me being paired with cAKE or BD actually confuses me. I've defended cAKE once thinking he was town which everyone except Atyeo and Jeans agreed upon. And I've had very little to do with BD until today in which he's still only made two posts for my defense. (I still appreciate it though BD, keep it up <3)
Other than disagreeing with most people Atyeo I don't know if you really have been more useful to the team. Aero at least tried to get something done early on for the day 2 play in which you came in as a last resort. You haven't really tried to get much discussion started until today and spend most of your time criticizing others. Which while it is a valid play in this game you haven't really opened up to anyone and just try and pin things on others more than anything, so you would have been a good target to investigate night 2. Also I know personally Jeans would probably just investigate you regardless since you disagreed with him so much out of spite more than anything. He didn't even reply to you after all the nitpicking, which is insanely suss and didn't even come in to do anything till he was needed to lynch someone.
I don't really know you that well Atyeo, I've met you briefly at a couple of events and I don't think I've participated in a game with you playing. (IIRC i've only played 4 games, 1 I was mercy killed early, 1 ended day 1 cause of character claiming, another i came in day 3 and the other one was in real life) So I haven't actually had the full experience. So if that reaction is normal towards him I apologize, I didn't really know that you had much to do together.
I wasn't even on the lynch cAKE train, I wanted him to speak so I put a vote out (as I explained earlier this was the best way I felt to apply pressure). And then in terms of pulling my votes to MrL I had a vote on him to get him to speak and said I'd likely switch if he said anything meaningful later (as I said he kept promising a write-up and didn't deliver). But then we ran out of time so instead of me pulling everyone's votes over, time pulled everyone's votes over.
So Atyeo, I did the maths on this one, if I were mafia godfather (which I'm not), I'd simply have to lead town 2 more days to win. With investigation immunity it'd be pretty easy to do this and while leading town even easier to convince. So day 4 there is 4 people alive, we lynch as it's considered the universally best thing to do a lot of the time and then mafia kills once more and then only two remain so it's then a 1 on 1. Sure you could say that the doctor could protect someone or town does a no lynch day 4 it wouldn't work. Even then it'd likely lead to a draw or a 50/50...
In terms of going under the radar I mean posting when needed and providing meaningful analysis, but only when NEEDED. Therefore it looks like I'm helping town but in reality I'm not saying a lot to help them, nor am I saying anything to incriminate myself. The best example I saw of a godfather play was in the fire emblem game by JonChee. He played the role perfectly and was only playing a supporting (but not really) type of role for town.
As I said earlier, if you think investigating you is a waste of action I guess you're really underselling yourself. The likelihood of us both being alive at this point is incredibly low and seems like it might have been set up day 1 from you lynching Glace early on. Like if I was mafia there is no reason to leave you alive over Aero since Aero was agreeing with everything I did. (and we both already agreed I would take protection).
Once again who is more suspicious than you Atyeo? Only BD in my mind, but as I said earlier I'd prefer to know what the big shots are doing at the moment even if they were to die.
I don't really know how I'm shooting myself in the foot with these arguments, as the days currently shown you have been the biggest threat to town because you now are within reach to win. If I had not investigated you at all you'd have all leverage on me and would probably just straight up win, since I had thought you were town initially and just needed to be sure since something was up with your play.
I don't know what this next argument is really about, but you do keep calling mafia play bad. People suggested it early and you would just straight up say it. However their plays been really good in terms of eliminating people who had been siding with me, while leaving the more suspicious people alive. (BD)
As mafia I wouldn't need to play super aggressive and draw doctors attention to win, Night 1 kill is a 1/10 chance or something for the doctor to hit who was being night killed and then and 1/8 chance on Night 2 odds are pretty low and you can pretty easily predict who is more likely to be protected based on play. Simply leaving Atyeo alive as a mafia member (which I'm not) who would have likely been drawing away the doctors protection is a big no no and you're just being silly here. ESPECIALLY since Aero seemed to be taking my side, maybe noticing my nicer player to him on Day 2 (Just guesswork, but it seemed to be a an odd occurrence none the less).
I answered above why who the doctor protects is pretty important for this type of game, it should dictate mafia kills which has been proven to have succeed in this instance.
So as I said earlier, I spoke up not because it was a mafia move but rather because I needed to defend myself Jeans had ample time to literally say ANYTHING before you decided to make the claim on me. Atyeo thought that my first post of the day was ample evidence to get myself lynched and would use it to say I was just leading town to another loss. But no, I really believe that the people playing and voting are the ones with the most to do with the game and I think that can be shown with our 2 pairing today of me, BD and Atyeo, Jeans. There seems to be very clearly at least 3 power roles in this 2 of which are mafia and one is a detective. Being able to state this was definitely easier to say since I already knew 2/4 roles in the 4 people I named were. Me as detective and Atyeo as mafia.
Like I said earlier I did the maths, and that suggested that even if 1 mafia got lynched, with appropriate play they could get to winning pretty easily. (Specifically with 1-shot immunity) But since I named dropped the 4 of us it's clear that option no longer existed and he really was just forced to counter-claim. Either that or you don't trust him with carrying out a long term plan by himself.
Lastly on the Glace thing, that type of analysis wouldn't scare me in the slightest. I KNOW that I am being the loudest player in the game but I was trying to do it for a good cause and to get discussion started. It didn't really work and that made me sad, because I sign up to these games to play not to be silent. He really just reiterated what everyone else was saying prior.
All in all, Atyeo has put up a very convincing argument towards me, however he does so with no evidence provided and does what he always does and just goes through peoples posts and just tear them apart, since it's very easy to get people to think what you want to them to think by only sure portions of the story.
As Exist said I think I'm also curious to hear what BD thinks since him siding with me is actually a total shock and could put a hamper on my arguments. (Although I really do appreciate it, defending alone sucks :<) The only reason this is the case though because it divides town into 3 groups of 2. BD and Me (Considered potentially mafia as a result), Atyeo and Jeans (Also considered mafia and one of which has been claimed to have been confirmed scum by me) and the two townies (Exist and cAKE).
In reality we can extend this to another day and have tomorrow start with 5 people, but I think I have provided ample evidence and defense to as why I am actually the detective.
Also forgive me for the wall of text, I was literally just going through everything that Atyeo said bit by bit and this happened. Also what role are you Atyeo if you are not mafia? You say you have no evidence so I assume you're claiming vanilla townie in this case.
Currently all that's left is 2 mafia, 1 detective, 1 medic, 2 vanilla townies. The only thing we know for certain is that Detective is either me or Jeans.
Well we are in LYLO, so some information would be helpful.
Basically you're telling me that you were going to use this power and not say anything, you may as well have been vanilla townie. So nah, you're mafia and literally only counter-claiming me cause you were told to do so.
I was actually expecting Atyeo to counter-claim me initially, but that wouldn't make sense since I already made the correct prediction in my first post saying that one of Atyeo, BD or JEANS was mafia, making it that you would lose a slow defeat.
The only reason you've made a claim at all as godfather is because you really had to, not because you wanted to.
Rhyno said: that one of Atyeo, BD or JEANS was mafia, making it that you would lose a slow defeat.
That the mafia lies within this*
But I'm not lying so there is really not a lot to prove.
So anyways, I couldn't post much more last night since I had to go to bed and had a job interview today, so here are some of my thoughts.
I'm curious as to why Jeans would not have investigated Atyeo, there's literally a post a few pages back where Atyeo nitpicks everything Jeans did, seems like a ploy to separate the two by having a discussion like this. Also when I mentioned Jeans was Hydropimp specifically, Atyeo showed distaste with this and the reaction almost seemed telegraphed.
Both Atyeo and Jeans have been pretty much constantly on the lynch cAKE train, the only reason they didn't succeed was because me and BD believed his story since it was similar to his past games. (so they stopped pushing for it since I guess they already knew I was pushing information out of a more inactive townie which could be easily lynched).
Another thing is that if I were a mafia godfather I sure as hell wouldn't claim something myself, I'd much rather do a regular defense since we already know all the roles in the game and know both mafia are still alive, as well as investigations would just show a town result. This would allow me to go under the radar and I'd definitely just play a more passive role and let town fight among themselves since I'd feel safer, similar to how Hydropimp is playing. Simply I preferred to play more aggressive, since honestly it's much more fun and is able to generate me better information on who to investigate if I were to live each night.
Chances are typically pretty low to hit mafia, especially with one of them being a godfather, but since Atyeo and I were both alive I investigated him since I would like to think I'm taking the doctors protection since I have been the most active member, this would leave Atyeo as a perfectly good night kill target in the process, basically worst case scenario I would get a pro-town result (which might have meant he was godfather if he were still alive) or he died during the night and popped up as town.
Also Atyeo keeps playing off the mafia kills as bad mafia play, which it isn't really the people who died are unlikely to have been protected. As a mafia member you want to try and kill people who are not likely to be protected. (Since we still know that the medic is alive)
Do you guys think that the doctor would protect me or Atyeo?
So to answer your question simply, your very post is the reason I didn't claim straight away. (I really wanted to by the way, but thought it would be best to wait to see if anything interesting would happen)
I wanted to draw out answers from other members and wanted to see what people would actually post first. We now have two mafia members in our grasp because I subtly hinted to who I thought was mafia in my first an initial write-up. (Since I actually knew at least 1 of the 4 people left was mafia)
Like I said, the people who voted are the ones with roles, the most invested in the game. Also as someone who comes out to post very late in every day and is very inactive, your posts seem very much as if someone is telling you how to play and you come out when needed rather than by will. Like for example now, it's oddly convenient with how inactive you've been during the game to come out of no where and post only when needed.
My actions are pretty clearly explained through previous days. I had a 1/10~ chance to hit godfather and Aero was pretty much playing the same way as usual. So I dropped all claims on him for day 2 since the chances were pretty slim. I defended cAKE cause it was in my best interest to keep town members alive to win this game.
Also personally as mafia I'd distance myself from anyone in the game to not look suspicious. Openly defending someone sounds incredibly dumb if you'd want to pair me together with him. Hell you may as well think BD and I are also paired since he sided with my straight away. Also if you were the detective, why didnt you claim straight away?
Invisi messages me when the forum is back up, so I just assumed he did it for everyone.
I didn't quite say it was a great play by the way. I said that if he did it on purpose he earned play of the game because simply I don't think he could do it himself without assistance. (Unlikely by the way, I don't think his partner would tell him to do it)
Basically the play left today is to lynch me or Atyeo.
We are both top players and still left in the game after 3 days. I think killing Atyeo during the night wouldn't have been a bad option, since I was talking so much and was likely taking the protection away from everyone else.
So the main reason I also said I narrowed down the mafia to the people who voted is because I think the people voting right now are pretty likely to have roles of some sort. I know for one I am someone with a power role.
I am the detective. I've currently had the opportunity to search two people at night which gets me a result of townie of scum. The two people I've searched are Aerodrome because of his anti-town play makes me scared. Afterwards I began defending him in day 2 saying he wasn't likely mafia and pressed my efforts elsewhere.
That leads me to my second investigation of Atyeo who came back with the result of scum. I was slightly afraid of investigating him since I thought he may die, but thought I should check just to make sure.
So even though I said to vote lightly I will Vote: Atyeo. As this is today's correct play.
After making this claim I don't have much left to do since I can't actually investigate anyone left and not see them come back as town, so now is the right opportunity to do this.
Also just to defend myself once again, I only voted for MrL to get him to speak initially, but then he wouldn't play the game since his computer is broken and then the time ran out which a bunch of people chimed in to lynch the most voted for player at the time.
It's just the sheer ignorance of not knowing that Glace was already dead seemed very similar to some of his other plays from other games. (Which were all insanely dumb at the time, made him appear mafia then he wasn't)
Also I know it's a bad play, but I feel like if he did it on purpose I just got played insanely hard, if you know what I mean.
Also at the moment we are going to find it hard to even get to a lynch, even if Atyeo, BD both vote for MrL as well. We'd need someone else to come join the discussion within 1:20mins from now.
I agree that his defense was horrible by the way. I just think it was so silly that he couldn't possibly be mafia kind of thing. (He could probably still be, but yeah.)
MrL feels like he's kind of given up on the game?
But I'd like to ideally see his analysis anyways since it'll give us something to go off of, we have like a day to decide so tomorrow we should decide on someone.
At the moment my list is MrL > cAKE > BD in terms of lynch order since at the moment cAKE and BD seem more willing to play, but some of cAKES messages are just silly at the same time so BD is more assisting to town if he is a townie.