I'm gonna be annoyed if we don't get a last one now LOL
04/19/2019 01:50:05
NGL very much not a fan of last min hammers :| even against a person I think is scum
04/19/2019 01:51:03
04/19/2019 01:51:03
Oh Dean is here!
04/19/2019 01:51:12
04/19/2019 01:51:12
dean said:
Yes I'm here. I'm just not too sure that I like this.
I guess I'll hammer in five minutes.
I'm not 100% convinced either but we're out of time and any info we get from a lynch is better than nothing. If Asa is here though and you are town then I'd appreciate it if you could claim any power before it's too late. Wouldn't want to kill like a town cop or something.
04/19/2019 01:52:31
Hey guys, I’m feeling a bit better today. I only just woke up though so yeah LOL. I asked Invisi if he could extend the deadline to 12pm WA time and he said that was reasonable so idk if that’s going to be a thing or not.
Sorry I’ve been inactive just going through a real rough patch atm
04/19/2019 01:53:10
Sorry I’ve been inactive just going through a real rough patch atm
04/19/2019 01:53:10
Unless Invisi announces it then we should assume it's not a rule so for all intents and purposes we still only have 5 mins left
04/19/2019 01:54:49
04/19/2019 01:54:49
Hey guys sorry I've been at church all morning just got home.
04/19/2019 01:54:54
04/19/2019 01:54:54
This is hectic oml
04/19/2019 01:55:25
04/19/2019 01:55:25
I feel like we've had more activity this hour than we've had all day 2.
04/19/2019 01:56:44
04/19/2019 01:56:44
Invisi said:So extension or...?
Hey guys sorry I've been at church all morning just got home.
Pls post in three minutes. Extension it is.
04/19/2019 01:58:10
2 minutes left
04/19/2019 01:58:14
04/19/2019 01:58:14
Extension get. 2pm
04/19/2019 01:58:25
04/19/2019 01:58:25
extension to 2pm AEST
04/19/2019 01:58:48
04/19/2019 01:58:48
Oh nvm he posted a 2 hour extension in Discord that's boring lol
04/19/2019 01:58:56
04/19/2019 01:58:56
Okay you guys. You've got 2 hours. If you can't make up your minds by then tough.
04/19/2019 01:59:25
04/19/2019 01:59:25
Vote: Unvote
If we've got another two hours I'll give Asa time to claim something.
04/19/2019 01:59:41
If we've got another two hours I'll give Asa time to claim something.
04/19/2019 01:59:41
unvote I'm setting an alarm for 145 so I don't somehow forget
04/19/2019 02:01:22
04/19/2019 02:01:22
Do you guys want me to read up on particular stuff or just everything since my last post?
04/19/2019 02:01:34
04/19/2019 02:01:34
Wtf. I just woke up
04/19/2019 02:02:22
04/19/2019 02:02:22
May as well read everything you haven't, unless it'll take 2 hours lmao
04/19/2019 02:02:52
04/19/2019 02:02:52
My last post was page 21 and there are a fair few WALLS in there from Asa, dean and Bijou so may take me at least a bit to chew through it all properly
04/19/2019 02:05:01
04/19/2019 02:05:01
The last couple is us freaking out dwdw
04/19/2019 02:07:59
04/19/2019 02:07:59
Right so if Boozer is to be believed then Light faction outnumbered Dark by two. Here was the JEANS voters:
Asa, Boozer, Aerodrome, Ghost, Windkeeper, JonCheee, Dean, Extra, Mr L
And here are the non voters:
Jeans, Blaze, Maribro, BattleDolphin, Laggy, Longshot, Bijou
For certain we can take out JEANS, MrL and Ghost from these lists since their alliances are confirmed. Even if Boozer is telling the truth about being a sensor there is still a chance he is a mafia sensor so he's not completely confirmed as town yet.
At this stage this confirms the mafia teams to be three or four man teams as if they were teams of two you wouldn't be able to outnumber the votes by 2. Still operating on the assumption that teams had equal numbers from the start for balance fairness.
If teams of three, there was one Dark voter (Ghost) and three Light voters. There would be two Dark members not on the train.
If there are four mafia per team this actually is also mathematically possible. There would be two Dark and four light in the JEANS vote, meaning 5 people left are anti town. This would still leave two Dark not on the vote train.
We've already discussed why it's more likely for three man teams so I guess we should go with that for now.
Which leaves three of these are anti town:
Asa, Boozer, Aerodrome, Windkeeper, JonCheee, Dean, Extra
And two of these are anti town:
Blaze, Maribro, BattleDolphin, Laggy, Longshot, Bijou.
So this is a summary of everything assuming Boozer isn't lying. Discuss.
04/19/2019 02:16:32
Asa, Boozer, Aerodrome, Ghost, Windkeeper, JonCheee, Dean, Extra, Mr L
And here are the non voters:
Jeans, Blaze, Maribro, BattleDolphin, Laggy, Longshot, Bijou
For certain we can take out JEANS, MrL and Ghost from these lists since their alliances are confirmed. Even if Boozer is telling the truth about being a sensor there is still a chance he is a mafia sensor so he's not completely confirmed as town yet.
At this stage this confirms the mafia teams to be three or four man teams as if they were teams of two you wouldn't be able to outnumber the votes by 2. Still operating on the assumption that teams had equal numbers from the start for balance fairness.
If teams of three, there was one Dark voter (Ghost) and three Light voters. There would be two Dark members not on the train.
If there are four mafia per team this actually is also mathematically possible. There would be two Dark and four light in the JEANS vote, meaning 5 people left are anti town. This would still leave two Dark not on the vote train.
We've already discussed why it's more likely for three man teams so I guess we should go with that for now.
Which leaves three of these are anti town:
Asa, Boozer, Aerodrome, Windkeeper, JonCheee, Dean, Extra
And two of these are anti town:
Blaze, Maribro, BattleDolphin, Laggy, Longshot, Bijou.
So this is a summary of everything assuming Boozer isn't lying. Discuss.
04/19/2019 02:16:32
Well that evidence sure is pretty damning LOL. God sensor is broken.
If I went with what I know and think, then it's likely Asa, Aero and Jon are mafia, with Laggy and Blaze as the two off the vote train.
I'm happy to lynch any of those 5 really. Seems like town is pretty set on an Asa lynch but I'd like to hear from him first before we jump the gun.
04/19/2019 02:21:58
If I went with what I know and think, then it's likely Asa, Aero and Jon are mafia, with Laggy and Blaze as the two off the vote train.
I'm happy to lynch any of those 5 really. Seems like town is pretty set on an Asa lynch but I'd like to hear from him first before we jump the gun.
04/19/2019 02:21:58
"Idk the maths on exact balancing of mafia and town, and it probably depends on the strength of the power roles of all the factions. 3-3-10 and 4-4-8 both seem possible so imo we shouldn't assume it's 3 or less members on each mafia faction or it could mislead us later on." - I found this post from Ghost
Knowing this is a post from maf themselves this now reads like its defs trying to mislead us as to how many people are on the teams. The 3 Light 1 Dark theory seems reasonable as ghost might have been trying to make us assume his small mafia is bigger than it was. What ghost saw in other people:
Ghost was against: JEANS, Aero (Kinda), ASA
Bad vibes: JonChee, BD
Doesnt see Bijou as scum
I also want to bring this up again as it could be usefull to the discussion.
04/19/2019 02:24:19
Knowing this is a post from maf themselves this now reads like its defs trying to mislead us as to how many people are on the teams. The 3 Light 1 Dark theory seems reasonable as ghost might have been trying to make us assume his small mafia is bigger than it was. What ghost saw in other people:
Ghost was against: JEANS, Aero (Kinda), ASA
Bad vibes: JonChee, BD
Doesnt see Bijou as scum
I also want to bring this up again as it could be usefull to the discussion.
04/19/2019 02:24:19