Just to change the subject quickly, aside from policy lynching someone, (which is all fine and good) I would just like to try to figure out some other basic information especially for the less experienced players like me. In a game this size, does anyone have any ballpark estimates of the number of threats to town?
01/21/2019 13:20:22
In a 15 man game there should be 4 threats to town.
01/21/2019 14:20:46
01/21/2019 14:20:46
Okay, so this game is 21 players, so probably 5 or 6?
01/21/2019 14:25:08
01/21/2019 14:25:08
Would you think that'd mean 3 mafia and 1 vigilante (or perhaps 4 mafia with 2 roles that could kill?)
01/21/2019 14:26:43
01/21/2019 14:26:43
Oops i thought this was a 15 man game probably because i havent seen some players post
There should be 4.5 threats to town.
01/21/2019 14:32:14
There should be 4.5 threats to town.
01/21/2019 14:32:14
So we have a 4 definite mafia, and 1 other possible killing roles, we have SK, Vig, Arso, and what else? (i assume those roles exist) I meant possible roles
01/21/2019 15:28:36
01/21/2019 15:28:36
The .5 is mr l Wait maybe the 4 is mr l and the .5 is the mafia
01/21/2019 15:58:50
01/21/2019 15:58:50
vote: dd
01/21/2019 16:16:08
01/21/2019 16:16:08
Sorry gamers i've been out past few days yes i'm alive I've not played forum mafia so i'm not fully acquainted with every role people may have but like some people said I think there's very little reason to vote day 1. We have absolutely no data to take from to accuse with and with all this firefighter stuff i'm assuming there are more unique roles im not aware of i'm more in favour of letting the night just go and getting leads before we accidentally kill something useful.
01/22/2019 01:41:11
01/22/2019 01:41:11
DD said:
with all this firefighter stuff i'm assuming there are more unique roles
... huh?
No one's mentioned a firefighter. Kind of odd that you bring that role up specifically.
Vote: DD
01/22/2019 01:48:29
Bijou said:
The TL;DR is that last game MrL had the firefighter role and when the lynch train was on him he didn't bother to claim or anything and just got himself lynched.
You could argue that there was no proof of him having the role but any townsperson with some sort of role is probably better off claiming before getting themselves lynched even if the role is useless.
For those of you who are new, the firefighter role allows you to use water on a player during the night phase which protects that player from being killed by an arsonist (third party killer role similar to serial killer). In a game without an arsonist the firefighter role is almost completely useless. It commonly gets used as a meme in Aussmash mafia games since many of our games involve power roles and for game balance the mods tend to make some useless roles for some town players.
It was in reference to this and a past game
01/22/2019 01:51:07
I totally didn't see that post, which indicates that you have read some of the thread and yet also missed that we unanimously agree to lynch day 1 because it's mathematically in our favor.
01/22/2019 01:56:20
01/22/2019 01:56:20
Yeah I did miss that whoops, although I still don't agree on it if the math is right then go ahead
Vote: Mr L
01/22/2019 01:57:57
Vote: Mr L
01/22/2019 01:57:57
Is there ever a case where day 1 lynch is not optimal?
01/22/2019 02:30:48
01/22/2019 02:30:48
Yeah when we end up killing something super vital like an investigating role Although if we get lucky and lynch a Mafia then Town basically win straight away
01/22/2019 02:34:00
01/22/2019 02:34:00
What I meant when I asked that was is there ever a case when a day 1 lynch doesn’t give town the best chances of winning. I’ve looked into it a bit and there’s 2 reasons it’s optimal. First, town has a chance to lynch scum, scum isn’t going to night kill scum. Second, day 2 we can gain info from the bandwagons.
01/22/2019 02:45:50
01/22/2019 02:45:50
I haven't done too much research myself into the actual math of it, just from a few games of online mafia i've done myself whether ToS or Discord. I usually prefer no lynching on day 1 from these but I could be wrong on a technical term
01/22/2019 02:47:50
01/22/2019 02:47:50
Town can't win unless they lynch, so lynching day 1 is still optimal even without any data to work off of.
Atyeo provided extremely solid reasoning for why lynching day 1 is the best play back in one of the first games on this forum.
So as not to paraphrase you or anything Atyeo perhaps you'd like to give the newer players a quick explaination on this? Vote: unvote
01/22/2019 03:20:04
Atyeo provided extremely solid reasoning for why lynching day 1 is the best play back in one of the first games on this forum.
So as not to paraphrase you or anything Atyeo perhaps you'd like to give the newer players a quick explaination on this? Vote: unvote
01/22/2019 03:20:04
Varous hasn’t said anything yet so vote: Varous
01/22/2019 03:32:34
01/22/2019 03:32:34
Vote: Varous
he hasn't said anything, its either we leave him to die due to inactivity or we try to pressure him.
01/22/2019 03:35:22
he hasn't said anything, its either we leave him to die due to inactivity or we try to pressure him.
01/22/2019 03:35:22
Vote: Varous
Bandwagon time
01/22/2019 03:39:02
Bandwagon time
01/22/2019 03:39:02
Exist said:
Just to change the subject quickly, aside from policy lynching someone, (which is all fine and good) I would just like to try to figure out some other basic information especially for the less experienced players like me. In a game this size, does anyone have any ballpark estimates of the number of threats to town?
Btw in regards to this I would estimate there is 5-6 anti town roles since there are 22 players, though I'd have to number crunch this for accuracy. The game is usually balanced to be in 'lynch or lose' day around day 4 if no mafia have died.
The 5-6 players probably won't all be mafia either, there's a pretty high likelyhood of there being a third party killer I think.
01/22/2019 03:46:12
I agree with Bijou on their being a third party.There could also potentially be negative utilities like miller or voteless?
01/22/2019 04:01:05
01/22/2019 04:01:05
Day 1 lynch is almost always optimal, defs lynch at least someone
01/22/2019 04:17:01
01/22/2019 04:17:01
exist laggy and dd all vote Varous within 15 minutes of eachother wow guess we've found our mafia boys free game ez clap
01/22/2019 04:26:24
01/22/2019 04:26:24